Enduring disputed claims over Diego Garcia, an atoll within the Chagos archipelago, located in the Indian Ocean, have come to an end after a deal was struck between the UK and Mauritius on 3 October 2024.
As part of the agreement, the UK will retain a key strategic military base on the island it shares with the US military for an initial period of 99 years while the East African state exercises sovereignty over the island chain. While political negotiations have concluded, a formal treaty has yet to be signed.
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The Treaty, when ratified, will also “address [the] wrongs of the past,” stated the US State Department, referring to the contentious means by which the two countries agreed to depopulate between 1,500 and 2,000 Chagosians from Diego Garcia, the largest island in the archipelago, ahead of the construction of the base in 1971.
The latest agreement follows 13 rounds of talks that began in 2022 after Mauritian calls for sovereignty were recognised by the International Court of Justice and the UN General Assembly in 2019 and 2021.
As part of the new settlement, Mauritius will now be free to implement a programme of resettlement on the islands of the Chagos Archipelago, other than Diego Garcia, and the UK will capitalise a new trust fund for the benefit of the Chagosians.
Strategic military base for “global security”
“For the first time in more than 50 years, the status of the base will be undisputed and legally secure,” affirmed the UK government in a statement.
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By GlobalDataThe continued use of the military base between the UK and US is, it seems, crucial for the ironic protection of the sovereignty and freedom of navigation of nations across the Indo-Pacific. This region has become more dangerous with the rise of China’s military aggression against its neighbours and as a hotbed for the US-China rivalry, particularly over Taiwan.
GlobalData Defence Analyst, Tristan Sauer, explained that the base has significance as a refueling or rearming port and airfield for the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy during expeditionary operations.
“Since the UK typically does not do much alone, it also functions as a good point for US forces to use during their expeditionary operations in the region, and its a nice isolated site where they can test emerging technology and concepts as well.
“It is a well-placed dot of land in the Indian Ocean which is a useful jumping off point for expeditionary forces in the area.”
The Indo-Pacific theatre is a vast space. It is home to 60% of the global populace, or 4.3bn people. Likewise, the US Indo-Pacific Command covers an area of more than 100m square miles, which is roughly 52% of the Earth’s surface.
Mark Cancian, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that just as the US must prepare for “contested logistics” in the Pacific, “something the US has not had to deal with since 1945,” they must also look even more broadly to its western presence in the Indian Ocean.
Mauritius ties with China
Over the last decade, the Mauritian government has formed closer ties with China. In October 2019, the two states signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the first of its kind between China and an African nation.
Although the country is not a member of China’s global investment enterprise, the Belt and Road Initiative, this FTA does represent more cordial ties. It is is said to cover goods trade, service trade, investment and economic cooperation and achieves the goal of “comprehensiveness, high level and mutual benefits.”
The Mauritian Economic Development Board has pointed out that exports were poised for substantial growth in 2023, projecting a 7.8% increase compared to the previous year, driven significantly by the Mauritius-China FTA.
Diplomatically isolated after Brexit and with former allies in Europe and the US publicly briefing and working against it, the UK’s decision to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, thereby giving China yet further reach in the Indian Ocean, could signal the end of Britain as a major global power.
In purely military terms, the secretive Diego Garcia base could be the most significant casualty, despite an agreement to lease the site back for almost a century hence in exchange for aid and infrastructure development.
Publicly, the US applauds the new agreement. Privately, Washington will be furious at the potential risk to one of its key strategic military nodes in the Indian Ocean, which also forms part of its ground-based space domain awareness programmes.
Moreover, Mauritian ties to China may continue to motivate US defence and foreign policy over the security of the base.
In a US State Department briefing just after the finalisation of the UK-Mauritius agreement, Matthew Miller, a government spokesperson, struggled to dodge a repeated line of questioning regarding the continued exclusion of Chagosians on the secretive island of Diego Garcia.
“I just don’t get why… the people who were removed from Diego Garcia can’t go back… but they can go back to other islands,” a reporter said.
“I mean, there must be something about Diego Garcia that makes it either dangerous or inhospitable for civilians, and I just think that people should know what that is.”
Additional reporting from Richard Thomas.
