Elon Musk has, in recent weeks, taken to his platform X (formerly Twitter) to complain about the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II programme. The F-35 is no stranger to criticism, but Musk’s complaints – as well as his perceived ignorance on the matter – have invoked much ire from aviation analysts and enthusiast communities alike, even prompting a response from Lockheed Martin itself. The arguments against fifth- and sixth-generation multirole stealth fighters are much the same and Musk’s engagement makes for a useful jumping-off point for discussing them.
Understanding stealth
Though there aren’t universal standards for what makes a fifth-generation fighter, stealth capabilities are a key feature. Stealth is a fighter capability that is often poorly understood, with Musk’s comments revealing that he doesn’t understand it either. As per his comments on X, Musk claims that stealth can be overcome using “elementary AI with low light sensitivity cameras”. Aside from AI requiring data which doesn’t exist to work, this claim doesn’t hold water. His argument appears to be that, because physical objects aren’t invisible, they can’t be stealthy, something that any snow leopard would strongly disagree with.
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However, dealing with stealth aircraft is complicated and requires several radar types working in tandem just to detect them, and is far from being “laughably easy”, as the Tesla CEO put it. Within certain ranges, even the stealthiest of fighters will be detected by radar. However, stealth reduces the range at which an aircraft can be detected, meaning those on the receiving end of its attack will not have time to mount an effective defence, allowing the aircraft to strike its target and exfiltrate more easily.
It is reasonable to predict that the stealth capabilities of sixth-generation fighters will be an improvement on those of fifth-generation fighters. It will be even more of an improvement on those of 4.5-generation fighters such as the Eurofighter Typhoon employed by the UK and Italy and the Mitsubishi F-2 employed by Japan, which the result of the programme will replace. To remain combat-effective in the future, air forces must be prepared to invest to improve the stealth capabilities of their most advanced fighters.
Understanding drones
Even radar systems touted as being particularly effective against stealth aircraft – such as the one used by the Russian S-400 Triumf system – have difficulty detecting small, low-velocity objects. This has led some, including Musk, to believe that drones are simply superior to fighter aircraft and that the former should have already replaced the latter. But drones are not the dreadnoughts of aerial combat, rendering all that came before them obsolete. It’s quite the opposite.
While drones, being small and reasonably agile, can be difficult to detect in some respects, they are nonetheless very vulnerable. Drones are particularly susceptible to interference, having their signals jammed and even traced back to their operator. Ukrainian forces discovered this in 2014 and since 2022 have made efforts to overcome these issues to mixed effect. This is not an issue that stealth fighters face. Granted, they cost a great deal more and have advanced systems on board to protect themselves from such interference, but the point still stands.
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By GlobalDataThere are other things to understand about drones as well. They are used in battle, as in Ukraine, primarily because resources – particularly money, time, and spare parts – are extremely limited, making maintaining an effective air force extremely difficult (though the long-awaited deployment of US-made F-16s is proving effective). Furthermore, Ukraine has seen much success downing drones using the German Flakpanzer Gepard, a self-propelled antiaircraft gun first deployed in 1976. All this is to say that drones are a stopgap that can be dealt with quite effectively by decades-old technology. They are not the overpowering force that some seem to think they are.
Drones and fighter aircraft provide entirely different capabilities and serve different functions. Thinking that because they both operate in airspace and can deliver munitions or otherwise cause damage to a target is a false equivalence. As such, drones will not be replacing fighter aircraft, even by the time the programme’s sixth-generation fighters come into service.
Understanding multirole fighters
Being a multirole fighter does not make the aircraft a “jack of all trades, master of none”, as the SpaceX CEO and many others have described the F-35. The rest of the saying goes “though oftentimes better than a master of one”, which gives a solid indication of the point of a multirole fighter.
At its core, a multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) is simply one that can perform multiple functions using the same airframe, or at least one slightly adapted for each function. Calling them a jack of all trades or a waste of money misses the point completely. The flexibility of having the same platform perform some combination of air-to-air combat, air-to-ground attacks, electronic warfare, and other functions is useful and cost-effective.
Specialist aircraft exist as well, of course. If you want dogfighters then air superiority fighters such as the F-15, F15EX, Su-33, and Typhoon (though there’s some debate about it) are your choices. If you want bombers, reconnaissance aircraft, or anything else, specialist platforms are available. But there are still gaps that MRCAs can fill, granting comprehensive air superiority and tactical flexibility. Again, to dismiss them is to expose a tremendous lack of knowledge, one that is especially inappropriate for a man who owns an automotive company, a rocket company, and has intentions of government involvement.
The GCAP sixth-generation fighter will be an important upgrade
Technologically, sixth-generation fighters will be a significant step up from current fourth- and 4.5-generation fighters currently being employed by the UK, Italy, and Japan. Technologically, more advanced computing and improved stealth capabilities (perhaps with radar-absorbing materials such as carbon nanotubes) can be expected, and directed energy weapons and manned-unmanned teaming technologies may be explored as well. Compatibility with sustainable aviation fuels will also be an important consideration, especially considering net-zero objectives such as those of the UK.
BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Company – who each have a 33.33% stake in the programme – expect the resulting system to come into service in the mid-2030s and be viable into the 2070s. For the governments of constituent nations, maintaining an effective air force is essential to achieving long-term strategic objectives and international security. Crewed aircraft have a prominent place in the future of combat aviation. As a new generation of stealth fighters is developed, it is best to dispel myths early.
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