Another year has passed with Ukraine still at war and no end in sight (though a new president at the White House may change this). In this time, the tactical, strategic, and political landscape has changed. What equipment has kept pace and proven effective and what has languished in ineffectiveness?
The good
Above all else, cost efficiency, precision, and range-defined effective weapons and vehicles in Ukraine in 2024. Striking an enemy from as great a distance as possible so as not to put your own forces at risk is obviously advantageous but is not always achievable. Systems that allow a force to reliably achieve this can confidently be considered effective.
First on the list is the MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) interceptor system. This air defence system is named for its Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target AN/MPQ-53 radar, which allows it to accurately intercept ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, UAVs, and other similar targets. First deployed in the 1980s and sent to Ukraine in April 2023, the Patriot system has proven highly effective and has been a welcome addition to Ukrainian air defences. The Center for Strategic & International Studies estimated in 2022 that a new Patriot battalion—consisting of a headquarters battery, maintenance company, and up to six line batteries of six launchers each—could cost $1.27bn, with each of the modern PAC-3 MSE missiles costing approximately $4.1m each. Though costs are high, this world-leading system is supremely effective at defending key targets.
On the other end of the cost scale are glide bombs. A favourite of Russian forces, they are designated by weight with the FAB-500 and its 500kg payload being particularly common. These bombs can be dropped from an aircraft before gliding to their target. In July, Russia released footage of what it claimed was a FAB-3000 being dropped on Ukrainian territory for the first time, marking a significant increase in the destructive capabilities of Russia’s aerial power, which has been thwarted consistently.
Russian forces have been modifying their glide bombs, attaching Unified Gliding and Correction Modules (UMPKs) to Soviet-era bombs, allowing them to strike targets from greater distances and with greater accuracy. Though not as precise as precision missiles nor as capable of hitting moving targets, converting existing bombs only costs $20,000, as noted by the Kyiv Independent. Against stationary targets, such modified glide bombs are proving highly effective. It is worth noting, however, that they are also effective against civilian targets; “[a]erial glide bombs have become one of the greatest threats to civilians in cities along the frontline”, said Danielle Bell, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in a statement on 9 January 2025.
Perhaps the most well-publicised weapons of the war have been first-person view (FPV) drones. These drones typically cost less than $1,000 each and can be fitted with reconnaissance equipment or munitions to cheaply deliver destructive capabilities on the battlefield. These relatively small and manoeuvrable assets allow an operator to damage or destroy infantry and armoured targets without directly seeing them. FPV drones have become more resilient against electronic warfare during 2024, increasingly using fibre-optic guidance systems that prevent Russian forces from taking control of it remotely, an issue it faced previously. Though limited in range compared to other military branches, as an infantry tool, FPV drones meet the necessary criteria for exceptional effectiveness.
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By GlobalDataThe bad
Though conscious of the possibility of bias, the least effective weapons and vehicles seen in Ukraine in 2024 have all been Russian. The Russian military has demonstrated a systemic inability to meet its own publicized expectations and is plagued by poorly designed equipment operated by poorly trained and poorly led troops.
The T-90M “Proryv-3” tank, an upgraded version of the T-90, is perhaps the most prominent example of Russian ineffectiveness. It features a modernised turret with a new fire control system and an upgraded 2A46M-4 125mm smoothbore cannon. However, its armour and chassis have been largely retained from the Cold War-era T-72, making them uncomfortable and vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-tank tactics. Russian attempts to protect their tanks against drone attacks have seen some success, but the rough-and-ready nature of these augmentations shows a systemic lack of support from leadership. The T-90M lacks the technical capabilities to be an effective fighting force and Russian losses have been high, with estimates ranging from approximately 8,600 to 3,600 tanks of all varieties. The impact of these losses is compounded by the associated loss of experienced tank crews. Those who have replaced them are insufficiently trained to perform coordinated manoeuvres or otherwise operate the tank effectively, making the T-90M a critically ineffective fighting force in 2024.
Another purportedly world-leading Russian vehicle that has fallen short of expectations is the Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber. Its multi-mode phased array radar promised maximum speed of Mach 1.8, and its ability to deploy advanced munitions (which themselves have proven ineffective) have not saved it from being vulnerable to Ukrainian air defences, with 35 of the 140 aircraft having been destroyed as of November 2024. This $36m aircraft has been relegated to dropping the glorified dumb bombs that are glide bombs. While the bombs themselves are proving effective, the Su-34 is significantly overqualified for a role that could be performed by less technologically advanced aircraft.
The ugly truth
The war in Ukraine appears unlikely to end any time soon. Though US President Trump has expressed a desire to see the war ended immediately, we should avoid sharing his unfounded confidence—especially considering that any deal put forward now would likely come with serious concessions from Ukraine and an undeserved lack of consequences for Russia.
However it ends, the war will continue to cost many more lives and many more billions of dollars, leaving Ukraine economically and politically vulnerable in the aftermath. Unless foreign aid and equipment—generally the most effective and impactful equipment available—continue to flow into Ukraine, it will be at serious risk of losing this conflict. At the same time, Russian forces will continue to suffer high losses in the absence of improvements to their equipment, training, and leadership.
