The election of former US President Donald Trump back to the White House, becoming the first president to serve two non-consecutive terms for over 100 years, will send shockwaves around the world, with Ukraine front and centre of the foreign policy fallout.
A returning Trump will likely be welcomed in Moscow and Beijing, with Russia and China potentially favouring the bellicose former businessman with whom the leaders of both countries met during his time in office between 2017-2021.
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By GlobalDataRussia potentially stands to gain the most, with Trump stating during the election campaign through the fall that he wanted to end the war in Ukraine, as well as other conflicts in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, diplomatic niceties dictate that a positive face be put forward, as world leaders one after another posted messages of goodwill on their official social media channels through the morning of 6 November.
With Trump at the time projected to win the US election, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X to offer his congratulations on his “impressive election victory”.
Ukraine reactions: Russia, disinformation, and concern
Wider reaction to Trump’s win and its implications for Ukraine has been mixed, with little in the way of additional information to go by and the incoming administration not due to (re)take its seat power until January 2025.
However, there is concern that the worst-case scenario could see Ukraine isolated should the new US administration seek to alter its support.
A source in Ukraine, speaking on condition of anonymity to Army Technology, said that “no action was taken” regarding Russia’s alleged interfering with US elections.
“As we can see from elections in Moldova, Georgia, and [the] US, complete Western inaction with regards to Russian disinformation campaigns yields serious problems for [the] western democratic process,” the source said.
In addition, the source said that one area in which Trump was correct was that Europe “should not take its security situation for granted” and should not “rely” on the US for defence guarantees.
“Europe has enough industry, manpower, and human capital to build its own military as strong as the US’, so that it can fend off any threats, such as Russia,” the source added.
Andriy Dovbenko, founder of the UK-Ukraine TechExchange, said while President Trump had pledged to bring wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to a halt, Ukraine would “suffer greatly” should military and financial support be cut.
“Next year will be a critical year as it has been argued that Russia may not have the ability to replace assets as quickly as it is losing them, which is why the US must remain steadfast in its assistance,” Dovbenko told Army Technology. “With great uncertainty over Trump’s next move in foreign policy, Ukraine will expect a stronger commitment from the UK and its European allies, who must not waver.”
Other sources were similarly cautious, taking a stance of waiting to see what actions the new US administration could take, although warning of Russia’s long-term aim to subjugate Ukraine.
A spokesperson for ObjectiveUkraine.com, a British-Ukrainian business safety, support, and solutions company, said that they were “looking forward to seeing if [President] Trump can stop the war within two days of the inauguration” as was promised on the campaign trail.
“If Trump can achieve this, we will probably see a spike in business as there are countless opportunities here in Ukraine certainly in the short-to-medium term. However, Russia’s [war] aims have not changed, and they will try again in the medium-to-long term,” the spokesperson told Army Technology.
The spokesperson added they did “not hold out much hope” for the “vast quantities of military aid that has been promised but not delivered” from the current US administration of President Joe Biden.
“There will be a lot more pressure on other allies to support Ukraine. Hopefully Ukrainian MoD and AFU will now accept the significant offers of fully funded non-lethal aid and training that were put on the table many months ago, partly in anticipation of today’s outcome in the US,” the spokesperson added.
Elsewhere, a Ukraine-based communications agency commented to Army Technology that with the Biden administration to remain in power for three more months, there was a “window of opportunity” for them to take “bold steps” that they previously eschewed.
“In any case, we wait for decisive actions and leadership from the US. Democracy is worth fighting for – for global peace and security. We are concerned that the void of power in the US may bring the world into chaos,” the agency said.
In an eventuality where Russia was able to secure a favourable peace deal with Ukraine, the agency warned of a “world where our kids will not be able to live, learn, work and build a future safely – as no rule-based order will exist and nuclear proliferation will be inevitable”.
In addition, concerns were again raised over alleged disinformation campaigns by Russia, including “false fraud claims” and “AI-driven deepfakes”, with such tactics serving to “exploit societal divides”, pushing voters to question the integrity of elections.
“Disinformation thrives on local vulnerabilities, embedding in existing divides. This isn’t just about fake news; it’s a targeted assault on societal cohesion,” the agency said.
Questions for Nato and Biden’s last months in office
Officials from the UK-based defence and security think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) offered their own perspectives, with Matthew Savill, military sciences director, stating that a Trump victory creates “considerable uncertainty” for both Ukraine and its international partners.
“President Zelenskyy has already congratulated Trump and is no doubt hoping that the latter’s desire to be seen as a ‘winner’ means that he throws his weight behind supporting Ukraine,” Savill said. “But his desire for a deal – and probably a quick one – does not bode well for sustained US support, especially with the current pressure on Ukraine.”
In addition, Savill said that Trump would have to “contend with Congress”, in which there is significant scepticism regarding supporting Ukraine, amid a general US focus towards China and Russia seeing the result as “an incentive” to continue pressing home its battlefield advantages.
“Meanwhile, Europe and Nato as an institution should consider where they can take on more, while President Biden might choose in his last months in office to use the remainder of the funding available for support to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, amounting to over $5 billion,” Savill concluded.
Is a Ukraine collapse overstated?
However, not all think that the Trump election will see a collapse of Ukrainian resistance and a peace treaty enforced on Ukraine, one that would be favourable to Russia.
Fox Walker, aerospace and defence analyst at GlobalData said that the projected collapse of Ukraine and the larger rules-based international order was “much overstated”, as any future images of people living in an occupied Ukraine would be detrimental to Trump.
“Ukraine has put up a tough fight for the past two-and-a-half years, if its forces collapse now, President Trump will be blamed at home and abroad for ‘losing Ukraine’.
“Of course, this perception can change on his ability to negotiate some sort of settlement, but this seems unlikely as details remain scarce.”
Additional reporting by John Hill.
