The US Department of Defense (DoD) has published its annual assessment, required by Congress, examining military and security developments involving China.
The report, titled ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China’ outlines China's national strategy, which aims to realise the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and achieve modernisation by 2049.
This strategy is underpinned by advancements across political, social, economic, technological, and military spheres, with the goal of reshaping the international order to align with China's governance model and national interests.
China's defence budget for 2023 was reported to have reached $220bn after adjustments for inflation.
Analyses suggest that China's actual defence expenditure could be 40% to 90% higher than the publicly disclosed budget, potentially amounting to $330bn to $450bn in 2024.
These funds are earmarked for the modernisation of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), encompassing weapon systems, personnel management, and strategic capacity enhancements.
The DoD estimates that China's operational nuclear arsenal exceeded 600 warheads by mid-2024 and projects an increase to more than 1,000 by 2030.
The PLA is actively modernising its forces to become proficient in various domains, including land, air, maritime, nuclear, space, counterspace, electronic warfare, and cyberspace operations.
Despite these advancements, the PLA faces challenges such as commander proficiency, logistics, and urban warfare capabilities.
Defense China, Taiwan and Mongolia deputy assistant secretary said: “[What] we've seen over time is that they've expanded to a nuclear triad, with the PLA Navy having ballistic missile submarines, conducting deterrence patrols, as we cover in the report, and that the PLA Air Force has also regained a nuclear deterrence and strike mission with the addition of nuclear-capable bombers.”
In 2023, the PLA made structural adjustments, fielded modern systems, improved readiness, and focused on joint operation competencies.
Additionally, China leverages bilateral and multilateral military exercises to expand its global presence and strengthen defence relationships.
The report also underscores certain challenges within China's armed forces, particularly in the proficiency and effectiveness of its leaders. The PLA uses the term "the five incapables" to pinpoint areas needing enhancement among officers, such as situational assessment, comprehension of higher-level directives, decision-making in operations, troop deployment, and handling of contingencies.
The document further identifies potential shortcomings of the PLA, pointing to urban combat and extended logistics as areas that may require further development.
Additionally, the report touches on the People's Republic of China's (PRC) connections with international allies like Russia. The PRC also maintains relationships with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Iran, and various Iranian-affiliated entities.
The PRC has publicly committed to the PLA's modernisation goals. Despite irregular advancements towards its 2027 modernisation benchmark—which is seen as pivotal for enhancing the PLA's efficacy concerning the Chinese Communist Party's aspirations for Taiwan integration—the report indicates this progress is critical.
Furthermore, 2035 is noted as the year by which the PLA aims to finalise its modernisation initiatives, with an overarching objective to establish a "world-class military" by 2049.
